Climatic patterns in the establishment of wintering areas by North American migratory birds

Long‐distance migration in birds is relatively well studied in nature; however, one aspect of this phenomenon that remains poorly understood is the pattern of distribution presented by species during arrival to and establishment of wintering areas. Some studies suggest that the selection of areas in winter is somehow determined by climate, given its influence on both the distribution of bird species and their resources. We analyzed whether different migrant passerine species of North America present climatic preferences during arrival to and departure from their wintering areas. We used ecological niche modeling to generate monthly potential climatic distributions for 13 migratory bird species during the winter season by combining the locations recorded per month with four environmental layers. We calculated monthly coefficients of climate variation and then compared two GLM (generalized linear models), evaluated with the AIC (Akaike information criterion), to describe how these coefficients varied over the course of the season, as a measure of the patterns of establishment in the wintering areas. For 11 species, the sites show nonlinear patterns of variation in climatic preferences, with low coefficients of variation at the beginning and end of the season and higher values found in the intermediate months. The remaining two species analyzed showed a different climatic pattern of selective establishment of wintering areas, probably due to taxonomic discrepancy, which would affect their modeled winter distribution. Patterns of establishment of wintering areas in the species showed a climatic preference at the macroscale, suggesting that individuals of several species actively select wintering areas that meet specific climatic conditions. This probably gives them an advantage over the winter and during the return to breeding areas. As these areas become full of migrants, alternative suboptimal sites are occupied. Nonrandom winter area selection may also have consequences for the conservation of migratory bird species, particularly under a scenario of climate change.     

Binary Responses and the Three-period Cross-over

Problems with carry-over effects in the simple two-period cross-over have lead to interest in more complex cross-over designs. A method for analysing the optimum two-treatment three-period design with binary response variables is given by making a simple extension to Gart's logistic model. The method gives independent tests for, and estimates of the difference in treatment and first-order carry-over effects. An example of the analysis is given, using the loglinear models facility in GLIM.     

Robust Selection of the Most Discriminative Variables in the Dichotomous Problem with Application to Some Respiratory Disease Data

A robust method for selection of variables with the greatest discriminatory power is presented in the paper. The method deals with the two groups of data problem. An application of the method to some respiratory disease data and comparisons with classical procedures are given, also.     

The Influence of the Incubation Period on Qualitative Aspects of the Spread of AIDS

Based on a simple stochastic model the influence of the incubation period of the HIV-infection on some qualitative aspects of the spread of AIDS is studied. A critical ‘nfection rat’ is calculated in dependence on parameters of the incubation period density function.     

Field studies on the population dynamics of Biomphalaria glabrata, intermediate host of Schistosoma mansoni on the West Indian Island of St. Lucia

Growth curves, calculated for field populations of B. glabrata, were not materially affected by habitat, altitude or season. A mean growth curve was therefore used to estimate the age-frequency distribution of snails in successive field samples. These data permitted the construction of ecological life tables and the estimation of r, the intrinsic rate of natural increase (or decrease) of the different populations. The calculated values of r were inserted in a simple model of unlimited population growth but the resultant curves poorly represented the observed data. A model for unlimited growth was more satisfactory for pond and marsh populations but, apparently, immigration made it less satisfactory for stream and banana drain populations. Nevertheless, r may still be of value in predicting repopulation rates in certain habitats after a mollusciciding which does not kill the entire snail population.     

Estimates of a Treatment Effect Based on Censored Data Rank Tests

Linear rank test statistics are applied to the problem of estimating a treatment effect if two sets of censored failure time data are compared and the distributions of the log-failure times of the two samples are assumed to differ only in location. Rank tests for this accelerated failure time model are reviewed and Hodges-Lehmann type estimates for the shift parameter are proposed. Properties of these estimates are investigated, computational aspects are discussed and an example is presented.     

Demography in stochastic environments. I. Exact distributions of age structure

The steady state distribution of age structure is studied for populations with two age classes and stochastic vital rates. For a serially uncorrelated dichotomic vital rate the distribution of age structure is found analytically to be a singular steplike function; outside a specific region of vital rate values the singular function crosses a threshold to a smooth function. For a vital rate following a correlated two state Markov process the joint distributions of age structure and environment are found analytically to be singular steplike functions; again a threshold marks a transition to a smooth function. For fecundities which are serially uncorrelated but continuously distributed the age structure distribution is obtained as a smooth analytic function for all parameter values. These explicit results have applications to studies of age structure and average growth rate.     

Transitions: Homo erectus and the Acheulian: the Ethiopian sites of Gadeb and the Middle Awash

Significant differences in activity-site patterning and artifact composition at Middle Pleistocene localities in Ethiopia's high plains and Afar Rift are indications of both single-episode, small-site residues from small groups and multi-purpose, multiple occupation sites from which larger, temporary groupings might be inferred. Reconstructions of palaeo-environments and geography show that large assemblages relate to relatively stable topography, such as stream channels or lake margins, while small assemblages are more common in deltaic situations of rapid sedimentation and burial in the Rift that preclude possibility of reoccupation. A model for Acheulian socio-economic behaviour within the drier African savanna, based (in part) on chimpanzee behaviour in open savanna habitats, is proposed. This takes the form of organization into relatively extensive territories, each with several more closed-vegetation core areas, of limited extent close to permanent water, surrounded by more extensive areas of drier, open savanna, regularly exploited and patrolled by small groups. Movement from one core area to another was rapid and made together as a group, to minimize danger from large predators and competition from other hominid groups.